Colorado Party comes back to power making Paraguay as a politically landlocked country again

Horacio Cartes of the Colorado party won the presidential elections held last sunday in Paraguay. The Colorados had ruled the country continuously for 61 years in a one-party dictatorship until 2008 when Fernando Lugo, the leftist " Bishop of the Poor" defeated the Colorado candidate and made history. Lugo was hailed as the historic saviour of the poor and was expected to bring about a much needed change in the poor and backward country ruled by traditional oligarchs. Part of the reason for the Colorado defeat was the division within the party leadership. But as soon as Lugo came to power, the Colorados reunited and did not let Lugo to implement his reformist agenda. Poor Lugo was not allowed to help the poor  by the rich Colorados who dominated the Congress. Eventually the Colorados in collusion with Vice President Franco from the Liberal party ousted President Lugo through impeachment in an ugly congressional coup in june 2012. As a punishment for this breach of the spirit of democracy, Paraguay was suspended from Mercosur and Unasur. The country will regain its presence in these regional organizations when the new president takes over as the legitimately elected one.

Until 2008, Paraguay, the geographically landlocked country remained as a kind of politically landlocked one too with its rightist governments while all the surrounding countries  had gone Left in the last couple of decades. The Leftists continue to rule in Brasil, Argentina, Bolivia, Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela and Uruguay, while the Leftist government of Paraguay was overthrown before the completion of its term. Again Paraguay has become the exception by going back to the oligarchic rightist rule now while the other countries of the region are progressive, reducing poverty and inequality. True, Chile had also gone right after two decades of centre-left rule in 2010. But it seems that the leftist candidate Michelle Bachelet is likely to win back the presidency in the next elections to be held in 2014.

The return of the Colorados means " business as usual" with the government agenda driven by the rich and powerful. The President-elect Cartes is one of the richest businessmen with interests in 25 companies and he is also the owner of the football club La Libertad. Paraguay is the only country in the western hemisphere which does not have " Personal Income Tax". The governance is opaque and the instituitions are weak. They are not based on rules or systems. Even the economy is mostly informal. Unofficial foreign trade is much more than the official one. One of the biggest business in the country is to smuggle electronic and other goods to Brasil and Argentina from the border city of Ciudad del Este.

The Colorado party is not just like any other political party. It is the strongest institution in the country with a stranglehold over the whole political, economic and social system. One has to be a member of the Colorado party to succeed in government career. Most government servants including diplomats are members of the Colorado party. There is no proper merit-based transparent system for recruitment to government jobs. There are very few avenues for upward mobility of the bottom of the pyramid given the poor educational and socio economic conditions. There are over a million ( one sixth of the total population) Paraguayans who have moved to work as maids and labourers in Argentina.

Paraguay has not changed much from the portrayal of the country by Graham Greene in his novel " Honorary Consul". Greene describes the country as a corrupt, decadent and backward. Even today, visitors to the country are likely to feel as though they have entered the ninteenth century.

The scandal caused by the revelation of President Lugo's affairs with some women when he was a catholic priest is illustrative of another unusual social aspect of the country. A number of women had alleged that they had affairs with Lugo when he was working as priest. President Lugo admitted to fathering a child with one of the women and agreed to pay compensation. In another case, he neither admitted nor denied. In any other country, such a scandal would have brought him down from power immediately. But he was able to ride out the scandal since the country is full of such sinners. The Colorado party could have got him impeached for this. But they did not do it since their political leaders had more skeletons in their cupboards. Affairs with many women are common in Paraguay due the shortage of males after most of the men were wiped out in the Triple Alliance War ( over sixty percentage of the entire population was killed in the war ) which Paraguay had foolishly waged against the combined powers of Brasil, Argentina and Uruguay in 1864-70.

Paraguay has enormous agricultural potential with its vast tracts of arable land and abundant water resources. It is the fourth largest exporter of soybeans in the world. It has huge surplus electricity which it sells to Brasil. With these agricultural and energy resources and a small homogeneous ( Paraguay is the only country in Latin America where the native language Guarani is spoken by all the citizens) population of just six million, the country can become prosperous easily and quickly, if only the Paraguayan political leaders change their mindset. President-elect Cortes could get inspiration from the new Mexican president Enrique Nieto, who has given a new direction and image to the PRI party which had ruled Mexico for 71 years and was also perceived negatively like the Colorados in Paraguay. Cartes could add Inclusive Development in his political and economic agenda and modernise the country to move it into the twenty first century and make it as part of the emerging New Latin America.

New beginning and hope for Venezuela

The election of Nicolas Maduro, the chosen heir of Chavez, in last sunday's  election, is good news for the peaceful and orderly transition of Venezuela after the abnormal, autocratic and quixotic rule of Chavez in the last fourteen years. If Capriles had won, the change would have been abrupt and traumatic for the  Chavistas who might not have given up power so easily without some messy fight. Maduro's victory has given extra time for the country to decide its new course in the post-Chavez period. If Maduro  follows the pro-poor policies of Chavez in a moderate and pragmatic manner (wthout the confrontational and extreme method of Chavez) and combines them with business-friendly policies ( as Lula did in Brasil) there is new hope for Venezuela.

Venezuela is blessed with one of the largest petroleum reserves, large mineral and water resources as well as a pleasant climate and small homogeneous population of just 28 million without any ethnical. linguistic, religious issues. Venezuela has the potential to be one of the prosperous countries of the world with an ordinary and sensible Maduro rather than an extraordinary prophet cum caudillo like Chavez.


Chavez raised the hope of millions of poor Venezuelans after the corrupt regime of his predecessors who had plundered the country and left poverty. He started off with good intentions and policies but later succumbed to megalomanic temptations. While he has distributed some of the oil wealth to the poor people, he has left the country in a worse shape than what it was when he came to power in 1998. Inflation, power shortage, scarcity of essential items, falling oil production and a corrupt system of controls on foreign exchange and imports are some of his legacies. He has brutally damaged the political, economic and social instituitions of the country. Caracas, which was a peaceful city in 1998 is the only city in Latin America where even diplomats feel unsafe because of the rampant crime and kidnappings.


 If Maduro does not deliver, Capriles will come to power in his third attempt next time ( Lula also lost three times before winning in the fourth time ). Capriles, just 40 in age, has time on his hands. Henrique Capriles could be a reformist President, like Enrique Nieto of Mexico, who has renewed the hope for Mexico. Capriles could get inspiration from Nieto's PRI party which has made a come back after having been out of power for twelve years and learning the right lessons.

In any case, Maduro will be a  less- polarizing political leader with a weaker political base. He is not an ideological fanatic like Chavez, who wanted to change Venezuela and Latin America upside down and who was rooting for daily battles against anyone who did not agree with him. Maduro's authority will be challenged both from within Chavismo and outside. Diosdado Cabello, the rival of Maduro has the support of the military and is waiting to take the place of Maduro. The opposition party, encouraged by the closest finish in this election, will challenge Maduro's administration all the way.

With these constraints, Maduro is likely to be a moderate leader  and be less antagonistic towards business and allow more space for the private sector to grow. He could make the political course correction by being respectful of the middle class and businessmen who were the target of insults and abuse by Chavez.

Maduro will not interfere in the affairs of other Latin American countries as Chavez did so brazenly. Nor will he squander the oil wealth in freebies to other countries as Chavez did so extravagantly. The Colombians would be happy with Maduro while FARC has lost a crucial support after Chavez.

Maduro will, however, continue to be loyal to the Castro brothers, who had played a role in his designation  as the heir of Chavez. But he will not be able to be over generous to Cuba as Chavez was. Maduro will continue the anti-American rhetoric but in a much less confrontational way. He will not go out of his way to needle the Americans as Chavez did.

Maduro will be a faithful friend of Brasil and especially Lula, who had openly campaigned for him. Brasil's economic and commercial interests in Venezuela will be safe and continue to grow.

Maduro will fit Venezuela in Mercosur without politicizing it as Chavez tried. A sober and moderate Venezuela will add to the strength of Mercosur, which will become a global power house of agriculture and energy.

All this is good news for Venezuelan democracy and the future of the country.  It is also good for Latin America as a region which is now free from the polarising influence of Chavez. The moderate left will now consolidate itself and prevail over the extremism preached by Chavez. Lulaism ( pragmatic and balanced pro-poor and pro-market policies) is the indisputable long term trend for Latin America. Not Chavism.

A stable Venezuela and Latin America are good for the world and for India too. Venezuela supplies over 300,000 barrels of crude oil per day and this amounts to ten percent of India's total crude imports. Indian companies have billions of dollars of investment plans in the Venezuelan oil sector. Chavez sought a political price from India for giving oil fields to India. This made the Indian political leadership cautious since they were uncomfortable with his all- out anti-American tirade. But India need not have any such hesitations about Maduro, a devoted Sai Baba follower.

End of Chavez and Chavism..Eventually Lulaism will prevail in Latin America

I grieve for the untimely and sad death of Chavez, for whom I had great admiration when I went to Caracas in 2000. He worked for the poor people of Venezuela and made their life better. His oligarchic predecessors had squandered the oil wealth leaving 50% of the people poor and the economy in bad shape. Chavez emerged as a messiah of the masses. He made the PDVSA, the oil company accountable and used the oil revenue for development. He reduced the excessive dependence on US and opened new markets like China and India for the Venezuelan oil. He stood up against the US (which considered Latin America as its backyard and playground) and literally isolated President Bush in the Mar del Plata Summit of the Americas. He gave strength to the resurgent Left in the region and helped many small Caribbean countries and Cuba with oil at very concessional terms.

Chavez was a charismatic leader and engaging personality. He spoke to my son for five minutes when my son did not understand a word of spanish. He had incredible political instincts and mobilised the masses with his Bolivarian Revolution.

That is the positive part.

Like Qaddafi and Saddam Hussain, he became a megalomaniac, although as an elected autocrat. He has destroyed the industry, business and education system. He controlled foreign exchange, imports and oil income and allowed the Chavistas to become corrupt. He polarised the society with his venom, abuse and insult against anyone who did not follow his line. He ruled by threats, abuses and insults. He allowed crime to flourish in Caracas to teach a lesson to the middle class people who did not vote for him. He was so mean and vindictive against anyone who did not say yes to him.

Chavez sullied the image of the Left by taking it to ridiculously radical levels. He polarized Latin America and resurrected the hated Caudillo image back in the region.

On balance,  the damage to Venezuela, Latin America and the Left are much more in comparison to his positive contribution. It will take atleast 14 years ( he was in power that long after changing his own constitution) for Venezuela to recover from Chavez's destruction.

Of course, Nicholas Maduro might get elected by the sympathy wave. But he and other rivals of him cannot be as bad as Chavez.

So while I condole the death of Chavez, I believe that this is the time of hope for Venezuela.

Will the Bolivarian Revolution, the 21st Century Socialism and Chavism continue after Chavez?  May be for some time Chavism will linger on like the Peronism in Argentina. But the Latin Americans have had enough of the polarising and confrontational ideological battles.  What will prevail eventually is Lulaism which replaces the destructive Chavez model of polarization with a constructive model of Consensus. This consensus, called as Brasilia Consensus, seeks a pragmatic and balanced approach of pro-poor and pro-market policies. 

Latin American students looking to and visiting India

A group of 39 students and professors from La Sabana University of Colombia were on a study cum sightseeing tour between 22 November and 8 December 2012. They visited Delhi Agra, Jaipur, Udaipur, Ahmedabad, Pune and Mumbai. They visited universities, IIM Ahmedabad, IIT Delhi and some top companies such as TCS and Tata Motors

Another group of 40 Colombian students completed their three months' training in the Mysore Campus of Infosys in December 2012. This is part of the tie-up between EAFIT University of Colombia and Infosys, which has operations in Colombia. Infosys provides the training as well as boarding and lodging free. The students pay only the airfare. Infosys has extended this facility to other Colombian universities.

Students from a Mexican MBA programme also visit India every year  for 10-15 days and do projects on Indian companies and business between India and Mexico. 

But the most impressive student group which visits India is from Uruguay. Every year over 50 final year architecture students and another 50 plus Economics students visit India as part of their global exposure every year. The Uruguayan University has an innovative scheme of lottery to enable the students to mobilize funds for the tour. They say that almost every Uruguayan architect has visited India. Once I stayed in a boutique hotel in San Ignacio in Uruguay. The owner of the hotel who is an architect and his daughter who also studied architecture have both visited India during their student days. Carlos Ott, a Uruguayan architect is the designer of the IT complex of TCS in Chennai, which is the largest of its kind in the world with working space for 30,000 staff. 

A group of MBA students from Chile come to IIM Bangalore for a short term course every year. A Mexican University was keen to have a similar tie-up with IIM Kolkatta.

The Brazilian government has an ambitious programme to send over 100,000 students abroad for higher studies to make up for the shortage of qualified human resources for the booming market of the country. Our ambassador in Brazil Mr Prakash has worked hard on the Brazilian government to send their students to India too and organized the visit of a Brazilian delegation to India.

A number of Latin American universities are keen to have tie-ups with their Indian counterparts for academic exchanges.

Some Indian students have also started going to Latin American universities. A number of Indian students have studied medicine in Cuba. A Cuban vice Minister fell ill during his visit to India some years back. He was admitted to the Ganga Ram Hospital in Delhi. The Cuban Minister was surprised to find that the Indian doctor who took special care of him, spoke fluent spanish. The doctor had studied in Cuba.

Arul, a Delhi girl who had an MA in Spanish language went to Buenos Aires to study bilingual MBA in a university in 2010.  She is surely an asset to Indian companies doing business in Latin America. 

A number of Indian-origin students in USA and UK also go to Latin America for internships as well as for part of their study abroad programme.

Some Indian IT companies offer internship programmes in their Latin American operations. For example, TCS has a centre in Montevideo, Uruguay, where they provide training and internship for students from all over Latin America. There are about 20,000 young Latin Americans working with two dozen Indian IT companies in their near-shore operations from Mexico to Chile. Aegis, the BPO company which is part of the Essar Group has 5000 Argentine staff. The Indian IT companies operating in Latin America are in contact with local universities. During my stay in Argentina I had organised workshops/seminars on opportunities for work/training in Indian companies in the campuses of some universities and technology institutes in collaboration with the Indian companies.

A Brazilian student did an internship with an Indian autoparts company in Ludhiana for a year.

The interaction and exchanges help the Latin Americans and Indians to develop multicultural skills to understand and deal with each other.  The two cultures also complement each other. The Indians learn to balance life by adding some guiltless fun while the Latin Americans get inspiration from the hardworking Indians hungry to succeed professionally. While an Argentine night club has Yoga rave parties free from alcohol, drugs, smoking and non-vegetarian food, the Indian youth is taking to salsa and tango.

Besides universities and companies even other sectors have started attracting Latin American interns. There was a law student from Rio de Janeiro who did  internship for a year in a Delhi law firm some years back. 

A young law student from Cordoba in Argentina sought an appointment with me last year. I gave her the appointment immediately because, when she called me on the phone she said , " Vanakkam Saar " . She had done a one year internship in Chennai with Surana and Surana firm of advocates. She has fallen in love with India and wants to work for an Indian company in Argentina.

Brazilian perspectives on India

India’s foreign policy strategy has been unique from the outset and given the country’s peculiarities it is unlikely to adapt to outsiders’ expectations and adhere to traditional categories, continuously confounding, surprising and frustrating foreign observers – particularly those in the West.

India’s role in today’s international context abounds with paradox. At first sight, there are many reasons to be optimistic about India. However, India’s global aspirations are starkly contrasted by the enormous difficulties it faces both at home and outside of its borders.
India's rise constitutes one of the most fascinating and important stories of the past two decades, symbolising, along with China, the fundamental shift of power towards Asia. Yet while many acknowledge India’s newfound importance, the country remains one of the most misunderstood actors in the international community. The need to understand India’s perspective has never been greater, and today no global challenge – be it climate change, nuclear proliferation or poverty reduction – can be tackled successfully without India’s active contribution and engagement.

Whenever two rising powers sit next to each other, the chance for conflict greatly increases as their spheres of influence grow quickly. This unfortunate constellation now becomes increasingly visible in Asia, where a rising China and a rising India have begun to claim influence over the same regions.

Despite India’s traditional focus on multilateralism and strong support of the United Nations during the Cold War, its performance on the multilateral level today is surprisingly thought to be less effective than in the bilateral realm. India’s performance in the G20, the IMF and the World Bank is widely thought to be exemplary.  

India’s foreign policy is likely to become more pragmatic. For example, rather than in engaging in fixed partnerships, India will pursue its national interest in its growing sphere of influence, and align with whomever it deems convenient – be it other emerging countries such as Brazil in one moment, and the United States in the next.

By the middle of this decade, India’s role is set to vastly exceed its current place in global politics. 

These are some of the points made by Oliver Stuenkel, the leading Brazilian expert on India in his 38-page article on " India’s National Interests and Diplomatic Activism: Towards Global Leadership?" in the LSE publication " India: The next super power?" released in March 2012. Oliver is professor of international relations in FGV, the most influential think tank of Brazil. He writes a blog " Post Western World- How are emerging powers changing the world". He was one of the speakers in the conference I had organized in Buenos Aires in December 2011 on the theme " The New India and the New Latin America – synergies and complementarities". He presented a non-western and unconventional and fresh perspective saying that India defies the conventional norms of measuring the rise of global powers.

Full article in http://www2.lse.ac.uk/IDEAS/publications/reports/pdf/SR010/stuenkel.pdf 

This Brazilian perspective on India could be food for thought for Indian policy makers. 

La Nueva India ( The New India ) - book by Jorge Heine

La Nueva India ( the New India) is the first Latin American book on the rising of India in the twenty first century in spanish language. It was launched on 4 December at Santiago, Chile. 

There are lots of  Latin American books on the millennial culture, tradition and philosophy of ancient India. There are many thousands of ardent followers of Sai Baba, Ravi Shankar, Brahma Kumaris and Hare Krishna. Nicholas Maduro, the Venezuelan vice president and chosen successor of Chavez is a Sai Baba devotee. It is against this background that the author has drawn the attention of the Latin Americans to look at the new entrepreneurial culture as well as the market and mindset of the New India.

The author of the book Jorge Heine, a Chilean, represents the New Latin America, which has emerged in the last three decades with a new paradigm of growth and development with a promising future. Jorge chaired the academic panel in the seminar I had organized in Buenos Aires in December 2011 on the theme, " The New Latin America and the New India- synergies and complementarities".

The New Latin America is curious about the secrets of the rise of the New India. It is inspired by India's development model based on democracy despite the enormous challenges of huge population and mind-boggling diversity.  The New Latin America is keen to intensify engagement and partnership with the New India. Conscious of this historic coincidence, the author has given a Latin American perspective about India, based on his direct experience of having lived in India, interacted with the policy makers and business leaders and witnessed the transformation at the time of " India shining". He has pointed out the areas in which Latin America can learn from the experience of India. He has given facts and figures on the growing Indo-Latin American business and Indian investment in Latin America. He has related the story of how India came to the rescue of Argentina with increase in imports of soya oil when China stopped the imports from Argentina to retaliate against Argentine restrictions on imports from China.

The fact that La Nueva India is a publication of El Mercurio/ Aguilar ( a joint imprint of the oldest daily in the Spanish language and a leading publisher in Spain) adds prestige to the book, which was launched at El Mercurio's headquarters in Santiago.

The book gives a comprehensive overview of India after the economic liberalisation of 1991. It covers the economic growth, business boom, IT revolution, the achievements of Indian diaspora and the functioning of the biggest democracy amidst so much of contradictions, diversity and challenges. The title of the first chapter is " India takes the world by assault" and starts with the story of the assault of the Mumbai sky by the multistoreyed residence of Ambanis. It illustrates with the success stories of Bharti Airtel, Wipro, Aravind eye hospital, E-Choupals and Tata Nano. There is a chapter " Indovation" in which the author talks about the typically Indian innovations, Jugaad and "frugal engineering". There are chapters covering the foreign policy of India and the threats to India arising from terrorism. The last chapter is " Mumbai Consensus" talking about the harmonization of the vision of the various stake holders about the future of India. The word Consensus is etched in the memory of the Latin Americans who had suffered the consequences of the imposition of neoliberal policies of " Washington Consensus" in the ninties. But now the region has found its its own development model called as " Brasilia Consensus", which is a balanced and pragmatic mix of Inclusive Agenda and market-friendly policies. 

Jorge Heine was Chilean ambassador to India in the period 2003-7. He was not a conventional ambassador confined to the cocktail circuits of " Cheers" and " Your Excellency".  He had interacted extensively with business, academics, media and political leaders of India. He had given lectures on Latin America in Indian universities, think-tanks, chambers of commerce and management institutes. He wrote articles in Indian newspapers and magazines. Even now he is a regular contributor to The Hindu on Latin American and global affairs. No other Latin American Ambassador of the past or present has ever had such an extensive reach out in India as Jorge has accomplished. I used to call him as the Blackberry Ambassador since he was known to communicate and respond instantly making use of the Blackberry popular in those days. Coincidentally, the Blackberry company Research in Motion is the one which funds his position as CIGI Chair in Global Governance at the Balsillie Schoolof International Affairs, Canada.

Jorge has enriched the book with his diverse background and expertise. By profession, he is a political scientist. He was a cabinet minister in the Chilean government before his ambassadorial postings to South Africa and India. He is author of several books and articles. He is visiting professor in several European and American universities. He has also worked as consultant to UN and some global foundations.
This book is not just an academic exercise by Jorge Heine. He is a genuine believer in India and has been talking about India's promise in seminars and conferences held in US, Europe and Latin America and also writing about India in global newspapers and magazines. He got me to coauthor with him an article in the prestigious America's Quarterly on India-Latin America relations. 

This book is a reflection of the new trend of direct dialogue and interaction between Indians and Latin Americans. In 2008, a Brazilian journalist Patricia Campos de Mello wrote a book " La India- de miseria a potencia ( India – from misery to potency ) after her two week visit to India. Last month, Florencia Costa, another Brazilian journalist published a book " Os Indianos" ( The Indians ). She had lived in Mumbai for five years and has married a Times of India journalist Shoban Saxena, who has now moved to Sao Paulo and has started writing articles on Brazil and Latin America. 

La Nueva India is a contemporary version of the famous Octavio Paz's book " Vislumbres de la India" which had introduced the India to the Latin Americans. Octavio Paz was also ambassador to India, like Jorge Heine. Given the extensive and passionate promotion of India in Latin America with his book, articles and lectures, Jorge Heine can be described as the Latin American Ambassador of India.

Latin American poverty rate lowest in three decades

The number of people living in poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean has dropped to its lowest level in three decades due to more jobs and higher wages, according to the study released on 27 November by the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and Caribbean.
Despite lower poverty levels overall, 167 million people in the region are still considered poor. That’s one million fewer than in 2011, and it represents about 29 percent of the region’s population. Of those, 66 million people remain stuck in extreme poverty. 

Poverty in Latin America will continues its downward trend, but at a slower rate than in recent years, thanks to projections of positive economic growth and moderate inflation for the region in 2012 the last decade has seen reduced inequality in income distribution, although this issue remains one of the region's main challenges. The credit for this goes to the Inclusive Development policies of the governments of the region.

Launching of the book " Os Indianos " in Sao Paulo

The book " Os Indianos" ( The Indians ) in Portuguese was launched yesterday in Livraria Cultura, Sao Paulo. The book seem to have been well received. Florencia had to sign autographs for around 200 books at the launching event.

The author of the book is Florencia Costa, a Brasilian journalist who lived in Mumbai for the last five years. She has now married Shoban Saxena, a Times of India journalist and the two have just moved to to Sao Paulo.

The book is going to be launched in Rio next month.

This is the second book on India written by Brazilian journalists. In 2007 Patricio Campos de Melo from Estado de Sao Paulo published a book called as " A India - de miseria a potencia ( the India from misery to potency)

I hope Shoban will write a book on Brazil for the Indian audience to reciprocate what his wife has done. No Indian has written a book on Brazil. It is time...

Dame Doze (give me dozen) Brazilians and Pobrezinho (poor) me

When the Brazilians go for shopping in Miami and Buenos Aires, they do not ask for the price of clothes or other consumer items costing around hundred dollars a piece. They simply choose something and tell the salesperson nonchalantly, "Dame Doze" ( give me a dozen ).  " Dame Doze" has become the nickname of Brazilians.

Guess the name of the city in the world in which the maximum number of US visas  were issued in 2011. Not Mexico City, nor Monterry, Shanghai, Beijing or Chennai.

It was Sao Paulo.  398,000 visas were issued there as against 331,000 in Beijing, 305,000 in Mexico City, 292,000 in Shanghai, 270,000 in Monterry and 159,000 in Chennai.

The Paulistas (as the inhabitants of the city of Sao Paulo are called) do not go for jobs or to earn money in USA. They go there to spend money; on sightseeing and shopping. The Miami real estate agents and Florida Street shopkeepers of Buenos Aires speak more Portuguese than English and Spanish these days to attract the Brazilians loaded with money for investment and shopping. 

There were a total of 792,000 Brazilians who were issued US visa in 2011. According to a survey, Brazilian tourists are the highest per capita spenders in US. The reason for this are (a) the rapid increase in wealth thanks to the booming economy (b) the strong currency Real ( right now 2 Reals = 1 US$ . It was at one time almost 1.5 Real for a dollar) and (c) the cost of things and living in Brazil have become very high due to the exorbitant local cost of production and services. 

Sao Paulo is the most expensive city in Latin America as well as in the whole of Americas and one of the most expensive cities in the world, ranking 12th globally. It is more expensive than London (rank 25th) , New York (33rd), Paris (37th) and Rome (42nd) , according to the March 2012 cost of living survey by Mercer, a reputed human resources consultancy firm whose survey is the reference for multinational corporations. The Paulistas find it cheaper to fly to Miami or Buenos Aires for shopping than buying in Brazil itself. Sao Paulo has the largest fleet of private helicopters and jets among the cities of  the world. It is the only city in the world which has 4 Tiffany shops and 3 Bulgari outlets. Santos port near Sao Paulo has become the new Miami for cruise liners. 

Although Brazil has hundreds of beautiful beaches along its 7400 kms of the Atlantic coast, the Brazilians seek beach holidays in other Latin American beaches such as Punta del Este and Cancun. The Brazilians have overtaken the Argentines to the top spot in Punta del Este, the beach resort in Uruguay known as the summer playground of the rich and famous Latin Americans. Many Brazilians own permanent villas and apartments in Punta just to spend a couple of months in a year.

You might think that the Brazilians are beach creatures used to lying down on the sand in bikinis and shorts. Hold on.. The largest number of skiers in the ski slopes of the famous Bariloche in Argentina are Brazilians. They have direct charter flights to Bariloche from Sao Paulo, Rio and Belo Horizonte during the ski season.

I hope the Indian tourism Ministry and travel agencies focus on this under-explored Brazilian market seriously and systematically. The Brazilians have admiration for Indian spiritualism, yoga, meditation,culture and IT skills. Their interest in India have been stimulated further by the Brazilian soap opera " Camino das Indias" ( passage to India ) which drew record audience from January to September 2009. Bindi, saree, kurta  and Bollywood dancing have become fashions in Brazil since then.

While the Brazilians go abroad to spend money, foreigners are coming to earn money in Brazil attracted by the high salaries and huge business growth opportunities. Engineers and technicians from Portugal, the former colonial master, are now seeking jobs in the country of the colonised. 

Faced with shortage of professionals, the Brazilian government is sending out on scholarship over hundred thousand Brazilians for higher studies abroad. India has also made a bid for a small share of this pie. A Brazilian delegation was invited to visit Indian Universities, IITs and IIMs last year.

The Brazilian companies have leveraged the strength of their strong currency and cash surplus to acquire assets abroad. JBS, the meat processing company of Brazil has acquired US , Latin American and European firms to become the largest in the world. Vale, the mining giant has bought the Canadian nickel mining company for an astounding sum of 17 Billion US Dollars.The Brazilian industrial development bank BNDES is actively extending credits and encouragement to Brazilan companies to acquire foreign assets and become global champions. Petrobras raised 70 billion dollars in the largest- ever IPO in the world in 2010. President Lula celebrated this proud achievement saying, "It was not in Frankfurt, it wasn’t in New York, it was in our Sao Paulo exchange that we carried out the biggest capitalization in the history of capitalism".

In the past, Brazilian football players used to go to Europe to become Euro millionaires. These days some European players have come to play in Brazilian clubs to save in the strong Brazilian currency. Earlier the best Brazilian players were playing in Europe while the Brazilian clubs were stuck with only the left-overs, those waiting to go to Europe and those who had to returned from Europe on retirement. Now the number one player Neymar plays in Santos club of Brazil despite the multimillion Euro offers from many European clubs. Neymar earned 18 million dollars in the last season in salary and endorsements ranking  as the 13th best paid player in the world.

The Brazilian-Argentine football rivalry is much more intense than the India-Pakistan cricket emotions. Who is greater? Maradona or Pele? is the eternal debate over endless glasses of Caipirinhas and Malbecs. But now the Argentine shop keepers swallow their pride and sell Brazilian football jerseys to the Brazilian shoppers. Obviously they are cheaper in Argentina than in Brazil. 

The wine-drinking snobbish Argentines used to look down on the beer-guzzling Brazilians. During my golf game in Buenos Aires in 2003, the Argentine threesome in my group lamented, " we have become so poor after the 2002 crisis that we have to drink beer now ".  Now the Argentines bartenders eagerly open the most expensive wine bottles to  the Brazilian tourists.  The Argentine wine exporters are betting on Brazil as one of their largest markets. 

The prestige of Brasilian shoppers gave me an advantage during my stay in Buenos Aires in the last four years. Whenever I wanted the special attention of shopping assistants in Buenos Aires I would speak in Portuguese, making use of the Brazilian accent I had acquired during my four year stay in Sao Paulo. My café con lait ( coffee with milk ) skin color also helped in making the Argentines mistaking me for a Brazilian.

Hmmm…While my Brazilian accent and skin color fooled the sales persons, my Indian purse exposed me at the billing counter when I bought 1 or 2 pieces instead of 12. The billing clerk would  murmur " Pobrezinho " and " Pobrecito" . These are non-pejorative words and sweet way of saying "poor guy" in portuguese and spanish.

The message for Latin America from the reelection of Chavez

This article was published by the Indian think tank " Gateway House" on 11 October 2012

Link http://www.gatewayhouse.in/voices/blog/gateway-house/message-venezuelan-elections

also by The Hindu newspaper on 12 October

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-message-is-that-of-moderation/article3988562.ece

The free, fair and peaceful Venezuelan elections on Sunday, with a clear and accepted outcome has restored the confidence of the world which had some doubts about the vulnerabilities of the Latin American democracies after the constitutional overthrow  of President Lugo of Paraguay in June this year and the unconstitutional removal of Honduran President Manuel Zelaya in 2009.  The immediate and graceful acceptance of the people's verdict by Capriles, the loser and his message of congratulations to Chavez augur well for the future of the Venezuelan democracy.  These are also good for the growing maturity of the young Latin American democracies many of which were restored from military dictatorships in the eighties. 

The reelection of Chavez for the third successive term is an undoubtable proof of the empowerment of the masses of the region. It is the poor and lower middle class who set the political and economic agenda of the region by their election of Leftist leaders. Conscious of this, even the centre- right governments of the region are strongly committed to Inclusive Growth. 

Despite the high stakes involved in the outcome of the Venezuelan elections for outside powers, there was absolutely no external interference. It was purely a Venezuelan decision for Venezuela. Yet another reassertion of the Latin Americans that they are capable and determined that they would decide their destinies themselves, based on their aspirations and perspectives.

On the negative side, there is apprehension that Chavez would use this mandate to intensify his policies of  weakening and abuse of democratic institutions and damage to the private sector business and industry.  Hopefully, he will tone down his radicalism and moderate his approach. It seems logical given his awareness of the clear message from the latest election that (a) his victory margin has come down (b) the uncertainty of his health from cancer  and ( c ) the emergence of Caprilles as a credible alternative to Chavez by securing 45% vote and his reaching out to Chavez's electorate ( unlike his predecessor candidates, who would not even pay lip service to the poor) by reassuring that he would continue the good parts of Chavez's pro-poor policies.  More importantly, Caprilles's promise to take Venezuela to the mainstream path of Latin America which is moving towards pragmatic centre with a balance of pro-poor and pro-market policies is appealing even to Chavistas who are tired of the the excessive radicalism, unnecessary confrontation and poor management of the resources and economy by Chavez.

The second negative score is the reelection of Chavez for an unprecedented third term and his continuous rule for twenty years from 1999 to 2019. This is not a good news for the region which has come out from the forgettable past regimes of Caudillos ( strong men). At present, he is the longest serving Latin American President. In all the other democracies of the region, Presidential term is limited to two or one. Even the Constituition framed by Chavez himself had limited the term to two but he got it amended later to remove the term limit.  This bad example might inspire others like President Correa of Ecuador, President Evo Morales of Bolivia and the Argentine President Cristina, who have dreams of unlimited terms and power. 

Some might fear that Chavez's victory based on his model of ideological polarization might spread further in the region giving rise to more Chavista Presidents. But his model has already reached its peak and is losing appeal steadily and irreversibly in the region. This was evident from the case of  Humala, fellow leftist leader from Peru. Chavez's support was kiss of death for Humala during the Peruvian elections in 2006. Besides asking Peruvians to vote for Humala, Chavez went further and openly attacked  Alan Garcia, the opponent of Humala, calling him as thief among other things. Humala, who was till then leading in the opinion polls, lost the elections unexpectedly since the Peruvian voters were provoked and scared by the aggressive interference of Chavez. In the 2011 elections, Humala got out from the label of Peruvian Chavez, remade himself as the Peruvian Lula, espoused pragmatism and won the 2011 elections. Similiarly when Mujica, the former guerrilla leader of Uruguay was contesting the elections in 2009, the opposition scared the voters calling him as a Uruguayan Chavez. But Mujica got over this defamation by assuring that he would be a Uruguayan Lula and got elected.  The defeat of the radical leftist candidate Obrador in the June 2012 Mexican elections is also a message to the Latin American Left that radicalism is not a ticket to power.  Even Ortega, the authentic Marxist President of Nicaragua has become business-friendly, moderate and pragmatic 

One of the long term achievements of Chavez for Venezuela is the diversification of the trade and economic partnership. Before him, Venezuela was dependent on US for over 80 percent of oil exports. Now China and India have become the second and third largest markets with 30% and 15% of the share.  Reliance has just signed a contract on 25 September for long term purchase of 300,000 – 400,000 bpd ( which is over ten percent of the total crude imports of India). Reliance has also expressed interest in exploration and production in Venezuela. ONGC is already investing in two oil fields there. This is good for the Indian strategy of diversification of oil imports and investment in these days of uncertainties caused Arab Spring and sanctions on Iran.